The North East could be on course for almost one in four young people aged 16 to 24 being outside education, employment or training (NEET) by 2030, according to new prediction-based analysis from digital skills experts The Coders Guild.

The research forecasts that the North East's NEET rate could rise from 21% today to around 23.5% by 2030, meaning approximately 72,000 young people could be outside education, employment or training if current trends continue.

The North East is forecast to remain England's most affected region, with its NEET rate projected to rise further over the remainder of the decade under a business-as-usual scenario.

The forecasts have been developed by The Coders Guild using a bespoke forecasting model combining the latest Office for National Statistics NEET data, regional labour market trends, House of Commons Library analysis, Government research and other relevant labour market indicators.

The model assesses where current trajectories are likely to lead in the absence of significant labour market or policy change, producing both national and regional forecasts to 2030.

The analysis identifies a clear and consistent direction of travel. The UK's NEET rate has risen steadily since 2021 and is now at its highest level for more than a decade. At the same time, the Government's independent Young People and Work review has warned the national rate could exceed 16% within five years if existing trends persist.

The Coders Guild's modelling independently reaches a similar conclusion, while its regional analysis suggests the North East could face an even sharper challenge than the national picture.

The region's rate is projected to increase from 21% to around 23.5%, equivalent to approximately 72,000 young people outside education, employment or training.
That would mean almost one in four young people in the North East could be NEET by the end of the decade.

The Coders Guild says the North East's position reflects a combination of existing labour market challenges, youth economic inactivity, access to apprenticeship opportunities and the changing skills requirements of employers.

While the Government has announced measures including the Youth Guarantee and wider skills reforms, there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest those policies alone will reverse the underlying trends before 2030.

Entry-level recruitment has weakened across many sectors, employers increasingly expect digital and technical skills from new recruits, apprenticeship participation remains below previous levels in key industries, and economic inactivity linked to poor health continues to rise among young people.

Taken together, these factors underpin the forecast that the national and regional NEET rates will continue to increase unless further interventions are introduced.

The North East's position should be a wake-up call. Almost one in four young people potentially being outside education, employment or training by 2030 would represent a huge loss of talent for the region and a huge missed opportunity for local businesses.

The evidence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. More young people are finding themselves outside education, employment or training at the same time employers continue to report shortages in the skills they need, particularly in digital and technical roles.

The Coders Guild's regional modelling provides a forecast of where NEET rates could stand by 2030 under the same business-as-usual assumptions.

The North East is projected to have the highest rate, at 23.5%, followed by the East Midlands at 19.0% and Yorkshire and the Humber at 18.1%.

Region	Forecast NEET rate (2030)	Estimated NEET young people
North East	23.5%	c.72,000
East Midlands	19.0%	c.104,000
Yorkshire and the Humber	18.1%	c.117,000
North West	16.5%	c.144,000
West Midlands	16.0%	c.109,000
London	14.5%	c.152,000
East of England	14.2%	c.92,000
South East	14.0%	c.133,000
South West	12.4%	c.75,000

Although London has a lower projected rate than the North East, its larger youth population means it could have the highest number of NEET young people in England, with around 152,000 young people outside work, education or training by 2030.

The Coders Guild emphasises that these figures are forecast scenarios rather than official Government projections. They are designed to show where current trends are likely to lead if no significant changes are made to the labour market, education system or skills landscape before 2030.

The organisation is calling for a renewed focus on digital skills, apprenticeships, employer-led training and earlier careers support, arguing that the forecasts demonstrate the scale of intervention needed to prevent another generation of young people being left behind.

Crispin Read adds: "Businesses are already competing for digital talent, yet too many young people are still missing out on the skills, training and opportunities that would help them build long-term careers. Unless we make better use of apprenticeships, invest in digital skills and create more routes into work, we're at risk of widening the gap between the talent employers need and the opportunities available to the next generation."